“Naturalisation is a catalyst for integration”

Professor Kosyakova, how many skilled workers will Germany need in the next few years?

Every year we need around 400,000 skilled workers in order to keep our earning potential constant. And that’s just the net figure: we need 400,000 people to actually remain in Ger­many. To put that into perspective, that's about the same as the working-age population of Luxembourg. These skilled workers have to come from abroad as Germany’s domestic potential is pretty much exhausted. The employment rate among women is now high and we can’t just keep increasing the pension age whenever we feel like it. That means we urgently need to promote migration among skilled workers. If we can’t close the gap, we’re heading towards a very problematic situation. IAB predictions indicate that, without migration, there will be 80 pensioners for every 100 people in employment in 2060. In 1990 the ratio stood at 30:100. The migration of skilled workers can significantly slow this increase.
 
What role does working migration currently play in Germany?

It is already a major factor. Almost half of workforce growth in recent years came from foreign citizens. The majority of these were migrants from within the EU, although their numbers are dropping significantly. At the same time, the number of non-EU citizens coming to Germany for work remains low. The Federal Office for Migration and Refugees put the figure at 40,000 in 2021.

How have German politicians and the wider public’s attitudes to migration changed in recent decades?

Germany’s route to becoming a nation of immigration has gone through several stages. Sociologists describe the period from 1955 to 1973 as a time of recruitment and “gastarbeiter”, or “foreign workers”. This phase was shaped by the agreement which Germany signed with several European countries in order to attract workers. Germany’s economy was booming and demand for workers was high. A period of consolidation between 1973 and 1980/1981 was followed by a period of resistance, when recruitment was suspended due to the oil crisis, economic crisis, recession and the threat of unemployment. A period of acceptance began with the formation of a new government in 1998. From a sociological perspective, we have been in the final stages of becoming a modern country of immigration since 2015.  

The state cannot impose cohesion, but government actions do have a symbolic effect.  Do the planned changes to citizenship law have that kind of effect?

Plans to make naturalisation easier and quicker are certainly a positive sign. After all, we don’t just want skilled workers to come here: we want them to stay on, too. Naturalisation is considered the greatest privilege which a state can bestow, as it makes the recipient a member of society with all the rights and obligations that come with that.

Yet the proportion of workers who become naturalised citizens remains low. Will the reforms be able to change this at all?

I think they will. Research shows that there are two things which are particularly important in making naturalisation more attractive for skilled workers: shortening the application process and providing the option of dual nationality. The planned changes include both of these. They permit natur­alisation after five years instead of eight, and three years in exceptional cases. The intention is for dual or multiple nationalities to be recognised. That greatly increases the chance that people, including skilled workers, will apply for naturalisation.
 
How does naturalisation factor into integration?

Naturalisation is a catalyst for integration, as scientific research has now shown. Naturalised migrants possess better language skills, higher levels of education, more social contacts and are also more strongly integrated politically.  

The new Skilled Immigration Act was adopted in June 2023 following reforms in 2020. How do you assess the developments of recent years?

The 2020 reforms brought no fundamental changes to the legal system, such as moving towards a points system. They did open up the system somewhat by putting people with non-academic qualifications on the same level as those with university degrees. The reforms also created opportunities to come to Germany before someone's vocational qualifications had been recognised. However, these were all minor reforms which have failed to demonstrate a quantitative effect thus far. Indeed, the opposite is true, as immigration for work purposes collapsed during the pandemic. We will now have to wait and see how the figures have changed since then.

What is your assessment of the new Skilled Immigration Act?

The new law includes a raft of minor changes and a few major ones. The minor changes include reducing the income threshold for the EU Blue Card, which is the migration pathway for highly qualified citizens of non-EU countries, to a realistic level. There are also plans to make it easier for immigrants to bring their families with them. The social elements of the law are very important both to recruiting skilled workers and encouraging them to remain here. All this is worthwhile, but it does not go beyond the framework of existing laws. On the other hand, one new element is the provision to allow skilled workers to skip the process of having their qualifications assessed for comparability with German qualifications if their salary is above a certain level. That said, apart from the Blue Card, the salary thresholds are still too high. It is unlikely that you would come to Germany and start earning such a big salary straightaway. However, in my view one of the most innovative elements of the new law is the Opportunity Card. If you hold a recognised vocational qualification or degree abroad, you can travel to Germany for up to 12 months to find a job – as long as you have enough points in categories such as work experience and language skills.

What do you think of these changes?

They’re moving in the right direction. They create new access opportunities and make existing opportunities easier. What's very important is that the new law no longer places such emphasis on having qualifications recognised in Germany. It was often the cases that foreign degrees were not recognised at all or only elements were recognised. This led to skilled workers needing to gain additional qualifications which prolonged the process, or even derailed it completely. So it does lower some barriers, but when you look at the detail they are still too high. It remains to be seen if people abroad will understand the wide range of regulations in Germany. After all, that’s vital if we are to redress the shortage of skilled workers.

Yuliya Kosyakova is head of the Migration, Integration and International Labour Studies research department at the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Nuremberg. The IAB is the research division of the Federal Employment Agency. Yuliya Kosyakova is also Professor of Migration Research at University of Bamberg. The sociologist is originally from Ukraine but came to Germany over 20 years with along with a group of other Jewish refugees.