CDU/CSU wins the Bundestag elections

Berlin – change of leadership in Germany: the sister parties Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) are the clear winners of the Bundestag elections, with Friedrich Merz now likely to become the next chancellor. The CDU/CSU secured 28.5 per cent of the vote (2021 election: 24.1 per cent). 

The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) achieved 16.4 per cent (2021: 25.7 per cent) – their worst result ever in a federal election. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubled its share of the vote compared to the last federal election in 2021 to 20.8 per cent (2021 election: 10.4 per cent). The strongholds of the AfD are in the east: it has become the most powerful political force in all five eastern German states. Alliance 90/The Greens with chancellor candidate Robert Habeck secured only 11.6 per cent of the vote (2021: 14.7 per cent). The Left improved its standing significantly, increasing its share of the vote to 8.8 per cent (2021: 4.9 per cent). The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is no longer represented in parliament, having gained just 4.3 per cent of the vote (2021: 11.4 per cent). The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) failed by a wafer-thin margin at the five-per-cent hurdle, achieving 4.972 per cent according to the Federal Election Authority. The spokesperson for the Federal Returning Officer said that the BSW was approximately 14,000 votes short of the five-per-cent hurdle. 

Coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD likely

Everything now points to a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, since there is no majority for an alliance between the conservatives and the Greens. CDU leader Merz has ruled out any cooperation with the AfD, parts of which are categorised as right-wing extremist. 

Merz: government to be formed by Easter

CDU leader Merz now looks likely to become the next chancellor after Olaf Scholz (SPD) – but the latter will remain in office for the time being. Merz has announced that he wants to form a government by no later than Easter. 

No coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Greens possible

The new Bundestag has 630 seats – so 316 seats are needed for a majority. CDU/CSU have 208 seats in the new parliament, with the SPD on 121. This means that a governing coalition is possible between the two groups. A CDU/CSU–Green alliance falls short of the required majority, since the Greens will only have 85 members of parliament. With 151 seats, the AfD has noticeably increased its presence in the Bundestag, while the Left will now have 64 members of parliament. The Südschleswigscher Wählerverband secured a mandate once again: as the party of the Danish and Frisian minority, it is exempt from the five-per-cent threshold.

Record voter turnout

At between 83.0 and 83.1 per cent, voter turnout was higher than in 2021 (76.4 per cent), reaching its highest level since reunification in 1990. A total of 59.2 million people were called on to vote, 42 per cent of whom were aged 60 or over.

Bundestag now smaller – around 100 fewer members of parliament

Due to a reform, the new Bundestag is now significantly smaller. The number of seats was capped at 630 – down by more than 100. This was achieved by eliminating the so-called overhang and compensatory mandates, which often resulted in an over-inflated parliament. From now on, candidates elected with a first vote only enter the Bundestag if their party received a sufficient number of second votes. (with dpa)